Forest fire (Credit: Bigstock)

Accelerating Air Quality Forecasts

Our Contribution

Fueled by increasing temperatures and droughts, severe wildfires are on the rise around the world—as are the smoke-borne contaminants that harm the environment and human health. In 2023, Canada recorded its worst wildfire season ever, with fires releasing more than 290 million tons of carbon into the atmosphere. California also experienced record-setting fire seasons in 2020 and 2021.

The side effects from this pollution range from irritating to deadly. Smoke from the Canadian wildfires drifted as far as Portugal and Spain, and set off air quality alerts in cities across the United States and Canada as it inflicted stinging eyes, stuffy noses, and labored breathing on millions of people. The National Institutes of Health estimates that all air pollution is responsible for 6.5 million deaths every year globally.

To better understand where smoke pollutants will travel and when, researchers at APL, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and NASA are leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to emulate atmospheric models. This family of APL projects will ultimately help forecasters deliver earlier, higher-resolution, and more accurate predictions of the movements and evolution of air quality threats, like wildfires.

We know that dangerous air quality levels are a significant threat, but because exposure happens slowly, over time it is more difficult to quantify. A more accurate, higher-resolution model can help protect populations by providing them with information about air quality over time so that they can better plan ahead.

Marisa Hughes Climate Intelligence Lead and Assistant Manager of the Human and Machine Intelligence Program
Marisa Hughes

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